Plus: Salas' monumental night
Friday, September 18
DENVER -- When the Padres arrived in Miami a couple months ago, their season was on the brink.
They had lost series in Kansas City and Atlanta to begin the second half. They were four games out of a playoff spot, in 11th place in the National League. There were five teams they would need to jump to reach playoff position. The Trade Deadline loomed.
It was put up or shut up time. The Padres knew it. They needed rotation reinforcements. But they weren’t going to get any unless they started winning. If they didn’t? All options were on the table, including trading away critical pieces like Adrian Morejon and Michael King -- maybe even Mason Miller.
I still believe that Miami series was the biggest series of the Padres’ season. I did a very unscientific straw poll of a few players and staffers this week in Colorado. They mostly seemed to agree.
The Padres ended up sweeping the Marlins, who, at the time, were ahead of them in the standings. In the finale, San Diego stormed back from a three-run deficit. Manny Machado hit a game-tying home run in the eighth. Jackson Merrill followed with the game-winner. The Padres would win eight of nine heading into the Deadline, leaving no doubt they'd be buyers.
Now, here we are.
The Marlins come to town for the rematch this weekend. The Padres have firm control of a Wild Card spot. They lead the Diamondbacks by four games in the race for the final playoff spot in the National League. They can eliminate Miami from contention with a win tonight.
This feels like as good a time as any to reset the Wild Card race:
What’s at stake?
The Padres' primary concern is still simply getting into the playoffs. But they can legitimately turn their attention to what’s above them in the standings, as well.
There are three Wild Card spots available. The Cubs and Phillies are within reach, both a game ahead of San Diego. If the Padres surpass them, they would host a Wild Card Series (though they’d need to overtake both entirely, because the Padres have already lost both tiebreakers).
It's a worthwhile goal to strive for, particularly considering their 46-29 record at home this season. But, again, the primary objective is reaching the postseason. And their four-game cushion on Arizona gives them roughly an 89% chance, according to FanGraphs.
What’s left
I’ve been waiting for today! Finally, a day with no more half-games in the standings!
All four Wild Card contenders have nine games remaining. All four have an off-day on Monday. Here’s how it breaks down:
Cubs (85-68): @Reds, Marlins, @Red Sox
Phillies (85-68): @Mets, Brewers, Rays
Padres (84-69): Marlins, @Dodgers, Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks (80-73): Yankees, @Rockies, @Padres
That final series looms over everything. Can the Padres clinch a playoff spot before the Diamondbacks come to town? That's the objective.
How can the Padres clinch?
Here’s why this week was massive: The Marlins took two of three in Arizona. (And that series was wild. The D-backs won on Corbin Carroll’s walk-off homer on Monday night. But they lost in 11 innings on Tuesday, and saw ace Sandy Alcantara earn the save in Wednesday’s finale.)
In the meantime, the Padres won three of four in Colorado to move four games up on the Diamondbacks. That’s a critical number, because they still play three more times. If the Padres’ lead dips to three games or fewer, Arizona would again control its own destiny.
Right now, the Padres are in control. If they can keep that number at four -- meaning they’d just need to match Arizona’s record over the next six games -- they will clinch before the Diamondbacks arrive in San Diego.
Pitching considerations
It’s that time of year. The Padres will need to start aligning their rotation for that potentially crucial Diamondbacks series and/or for the playoffs.
Here’s the biggest question I have: Michael King is currently lined up to pitch Wednesday at Dodger Stadium. But the Padres could move him up to Tuesday, and he’d still be pitching on normal rest. Would they do that? It would line him up to start the final game of the season, too, in case that game proves decisive. (And, if it’s not, you just bump him back to Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series.)
Makes sense to me. But if the Padres do that, would they just flip King and Robbie Ray? Or would they start lining up their playoff rotation behind King? (I still have no idea who would get the ball for Game 2.)
A quirk in the schedule
Here’s a potentially noteworthy consideration: The Diamondbacks play their series finale in Denver next Thursday afternoon. The Padres won’t play their finale in Los Angeles until 7:10 p.m. PT. That’ll make for an annoyingly late night. But it might actually play to San Diego’s advantage.
Here’s why:
Entering the final weekend, there’s essentially no difference between Arizona being two games back and three games back. In either scenario, the D-backs would need to sweep the final series to overtake the Padres.
So, because the D-backs play first that day, the Padres will already know that result. In the event the D-backs are sitting exactly 2 1/2 games back after that game, the Padres could essentially punt and save their pitching staff for the weekend.
Final thoughts
Pretty simple: The Padres shouldn't spend much time worrying about the scoreboard and any of these scenarios. They just need to win.
I’d strongly advise against giving Arizona any breathing room. If you have the opportunity to clinch before the final weekend, do it. The Padres could then set their pitching for the postseason and give some of their high-leverage arms a much lighter workload.
There is, of course, a major advantage to earning the top Wild Card spot, and a home playoff series. But the difference between finishing with the second or third Wild Card is negligible. You're heading on the road either way.
In any case, the primary objective is the most important one: Just get in. And the Padres have come a long way on that front since the last time they met the Marlins.
Prior to Ethan Salas on Wednesday, who was the youngest Padres catcher to hit multiple home runs in a game?
A) Yasmani Grandal
B) Fred Kendall
C) Francisco Mejía
D) Benito Santiago
• The Padres called up Salas because they believed he could help them in their playoff push. He’s doing exactly that.
• It’s one thing to make baseball history. It’s another to do it with your team locked in the middle of a tight playoff race.
• Xander Bogaerts did all the hard work ... then fell a single shy of the cycle.
• With an impressive 6-1 road trip, the Padres "took care of business," Craig Stammen said.
• The Lake Elsinore Storm won the Single-A California League, winning the clincher behind a pair of intriguing righty pitching prospects.
• Mike Petriello looks at the unheralded relievers who might become household names in October. You can probably guess which Padre makes the list.
D. Benito Santiago
On Aug. 18, 1987, a 22-year-old Santiago went deep twice in the Padres’ victory in Philadelphia, including a three-run homer in the top of the 11th.
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